Friday, October 9, 2009
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Stimulus Or No Stimulus, Why The Economy Isn't Coming Back Like Expected
This morning, Why My Business Has Ceased Investing from Coyote Blog helps to explain why we are not seeing the economy come back. From that blog post:
This is exactly where I am right now. The business I own has been growing at about 10% a year for the last five years. In each of the last 3 years, we have invested an average of a half million dollars in new facilities. In the past five years I have added over a hundred new positions in the company.
This year we will add ZERO.
It is not for lack of opportunity. Because we are on the low-cost end of recreation, we have had a record year. And because I am in the business of privatizing public recreation, my phone has been ringing off the hook. All over the country, desperate public recreation authorities are calling me to say that they are out of money, their parks are about to shut down, and can I do something to keep them open.
To the extent we find opportunities to grow with limited investment, we are pursuing those. But I just cannot put up any more capital in this environment. If I make an investment, how much will the government let me keep? How much are taxes going up (because they certainly are going up)? Inflation simply must be around the corner given the monetary policy this country is pursuing — so will my business be able to raise prices fast enough to keep up with inflation in my inputs?
From Don Surbers Blog, Commenter "Sean" writes the following:
Businesses aren’t hiring because no one knows what in the hell our economic system is going to look like 5 years, or even 5 months, from now.
Will “Cap and Trade” get implemented as the Democrats hope?
How much of an upheaval will “Healthcare Reform” end up being?
Is the administration and Congress done overhauling regulation of the Financial Industry?
No prudent investor is going to bet their money (i.e., invest in growth) when it is conceivable that the government is going to radically alter how 50% of this nation’s economy functions.
Investors want to know what the playing field is going to look like before expanding their businesses, or starting new ones.
Right now, there is no certainty. No one knows if the business you start up is going to be adversely impacted by government dictum in a few months or years.
To say nothing of all the questions surrounding taxation to deal with these massive deficits we have going on right now.
Too much risk, and the prospects for reward are also uncertain. No better way to prevent growth.
The logic behind this thinking is pretty much common to all the successful business men and women that I have ever had the opportunity to cross paths with. Even in the best of economic climates, there is an element of risk. But add everything going on right now and we see no movement to jump out and risk the folly of investing when uncertainty is the only known.
So we see the following:
- The stimulus was a big failure. Not only economically, but politically. Basically nothing for small business. Consider if the stimulus package contained loan backing to small businesses. Not grants or handouts, but loans to be paid back. 787 billion dollars worth means that its possible for over 7 million businesses to get a minimum of 100 thousand in backed loans. Now some businesses may need more, but could you imagine the confidence that we would see as a result of a move like that. That confidence would have helped boost employment. Further politically, the Republicans would have been co-opted and would probably not opposed anything after that.
- Cap and Trade is a loser. I believe if I had a problem that dealt with science (climate change), I would find a scientific solution. Not an economic solution. What if we are wrong. My Weekly Reader in the 60's said that we need to prepare for an Ice Age.
- Health Care. Words fail here, but why wouldn't we just identify the problems and fix those.
The stimulus truly was short-sighted. I have always believed in using experts and have left many choices to my betters, but it's turning out that my betters are a bunch of dumbasses. And unfortunately, our political class may be the most inept that we have ever had. As the Official Scribe to the Great Unwashed, you are not in the best of hands.
Monday, October 5, 2009
The Difference Between Conservatives and Liberals
A few comparisons from the post as follows:
If a conservative doesn’t like guns, he doesn't buy one.
If a liberal doesn’t like guns, he wants all guns outlawed.
If a conservative is a vegetarian, he doesn't eat meat.
If a liberal is a vegetarian, he wants all meat products banned for everyone.
If a conservative sees a foreign threat, he thinks about how to defeat his enemy.
A liberal wonders how to surrender gracefully and still look good.
If a conservative is homosexual, he quietly leads his life.
If a liberal is homosexual, he demands legislated respect.
If a black man or Hispanic are conservative, they see themselves as independently successful.
Their liberal counterparts see themselves as victims in need of government protection.
If a conservative is down-and-out, he thinks about how to better his situation.
A liberal wonders who is going to take care of him.
Read the whole thing plus the comments. In fact, the comments have some pretty good suggestions for additions. I suspect that many of you unwashed can thing of some more.
Saturday, October 3, 2009
America Did Lose
I noted in passing on Friday that, in addition to not speaking Austrian, our President does not speak Olympian.
But I was also mixed in my thoughts about the whole thing because I honestly thought that the administration had the inside track on bringing the Olympics to Chicago. This was going to be another spectacle of a photo-op for Barack Obama. I say photo-op, because only the images seem to linger when the words of the speeches fade. And the networks had hyped this to such a shrill level that I truly was as surprised as the network anchors at the ultimate decision.
Now, in typical form, the state-run media is now making excuses for the observed missteps:
- This is Bush's fault. For this I will refer you to the fact that New York made it at least to the second round in their quest to host the 2012 Olympics and this occurred while Bush was president.
- The USOC misled the administration as to Chicago's real chance in this.
- The IOC is racist.
Now, what probably caused this was:
- The concept of the Olympics is or should be above countries, cultures and individuals and they did not take to being bigfooted by the Obama administration. This ideal concept is probably the closest to utopia that we are going to see and no administration can be perceived to be above it.
- Chicago was probably never in the running as Rio had everyone beat on diversity, location and fun.
- The Derrion Albert news reports couldn't be ignored and did not put Chicago in the best light.
- Why would a country that evidently requires frequent apologies to international audiences expect to score the Olympics.
Lessons to be learned:
- The IOC is very political if not outright corrupt and petty.
- Presidential prestige comes only from serving as President and is not to be squandered.
- The press really has to quit hyping this guy. This does not serve him well.
- There are cities that represent our country well, but Chicago was not the example we needed right now.
- Under-sell and over-deliver.
- We can't really afford this right now.
America lost because this would have been a perfect excuse for Obama to move the "Chicago" bunch back to Chicago and let them prepare for the Olympics. There would have been enough graft and corruption to keep these folks in walking-around money for quite some time. He could have brought the Clinton Triangulators back to help straighten out the economy.
As the official scribe to the Great Unwashed, let me inform you that I believe the "The One" is now "The Once."
Friday, October 2, 2009
Thursday, October 1, 2009
More Than You Know
Since the state media has mistakenly not truly covered the present guy, we had no choice but to define him on our own. They missed their chance and now I shudder to think about just what's plausible.
Ignoring The Obvious
First caught on to this at The Anchoress and was duly impressed.